Credit: https://pragprog.com/book/liftoff/liftoff-second-edition
Create a prospective chart, which visually outlines the teams’ assumptions about future risks and benefits.
To create this chart, first divide the team up into pairs. Then ask each pair to make assumptions about the future and write down all possible events they can imagine that might roll out over the next two to three months.
Use sticky notes, writing one event per note. Include events with both positive and negative effects on the team’s work.
Guidelines:
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Focus on quantity of ideas over quality of ideas.
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Build on other’s ideas.
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Withhold judgment until you have the whole list.
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Explore wild ideas.
Next, have each group individually assess each event on two dimensions:
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Y-axis: What is the impact (beneficial or detrimental) to the project on a scale of (bottom to top) -2, -1, 0, -1, -2?
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X-axis: What is the likelihood of each occurring on a continuum scale of (left to right) won’t happen, 50/50 chance, or will happen?
Now review in order:
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- “high probability/-2” events. Discuss mitigation or elimination strategies.
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- “high probability/+2” events. Discuss how you will take advanage of them.
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- “possible/+2” events. Discuss how the team can put energy into making those more likely to occur.