INTEL 471 Cyber Threat Intelligence: Maturity and Metrics By Mark Arena, CEO Intel 471 http://intel471.com
Intelligence definition "... intelligence is information that has been analyzed and refined so that it is useful to policymakers in making decisions--specifically, decisions about potential threats ..." https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/intelligence/defined
I haz IOCs Everything is targeted at me and unique to me! Cant Share! IOCs or not actionable! IP blocked! Only able to consume tactical intelligence products
I haz IOCs with grouping and some context! This is China APT - Ugly Panda! I mostly copy content from vendor threat intel reports Have some pre-determined requirements documented It's not relevant unless it hits us!
I have prioritized intelligence requirements I produce unique, timely and relevant intelligence products to different internal consumers I look at threats to my vertical/sector, not just my org My intelligence program is expensive!
We see everything! No one flies We can jump a lot though
Cyber threat intelligence Two main customer/consumer intelligence product types: Executives/decision makers Network defenders Others (i.e. fraud teams) Different intelligence products (deliverables) needed Current market focus?
Relevance Relevance: does this intelligence (collection) satisfy one or more of my intelligence requirements If I don't have intelligence requirements (you should), does this impact me or my sector/vertical
Giving tactical intelligence products with IOCs to your C level
Your intelligence program's maturity is based on your ability to do each part of the intelligence cycle
Input into the intelligence cycle Prioritized business risks
Output of the intelligence cycle Decrease of probability or impact of a business risk occurring
Incident Centric Intelligence
Actor Centric Intelligence
Planning, Direction, Needs, Requirements Three requirements lists to build and maintain: Production requirements What will be delivered to the intelligence customer/consumer. Intelligence requirements What we need to collect to meet our production requirements. Collection requirements The observables/data inputs we need to answer our intelligence requirements.
Production requirements Intelligence requirements
· What is needed to be
· What we need to collect
delivered to the
to be able to meet our
intelligence customer (the production requirements.
end consumer of the
intelligence).
Production requirement What vulnerabilities are being exploited in the world that we can't defend against or detect?
Intelligence requirements
-
What vulnerabilities are currently being exploited in the wild?
-
What exploited vulnerabilities can my organization defend?
-
What exploited vulnerabilities can my organization detect?
-
What vulnerabilities are being researched by cyber threat actors?
Intelligence requirements Collection requirements
· What we need to collect to be able to meet our production requirements.
· The observables/data inputs we need to answer the intelligence requirement.
Intelligence requirements What vulnerabilities are currently being exploited in the wild?
Collection requirements - Liaison with other organizations in the same market sector.
- Liaison with other members of the information security industry.
- Open source feeds of malicious URLs, exploit packs, etc mapped to vulnerability/vulnerabilities being exploited.
- Online forum monitoring where exploitation of vulnerabilities are discussed/sold/etc.
Intelligence requirements What vulnerabilities are being researched by cyber threat actors?
Collection requirements - Online forum monitoring.
-
Social network monitoring.
-
Blog monitoring.
Requirements updates Update your requirements at least bi-annually Ad hoc requirements should be a subset of an existing requirement
Once you have your collection requirements Look at what is feasible. Consider risk/cost/time of doing something in-house versus using an external provider Task out individual collection requirements internally or to external providers as guidance. Track internal team/capability and external provider ability to collect against the assigned guidance.
Collection Characteristics of intelligence collection: Source of collection or characterization of source provided Source reliability and information credibility assessed Some types of intelligence collection: Open source intelligence (OSINT) Human intelligence (HUMINT) Liaison Technical collection
NATO's admiralty system
Used for evaluating intelligence collection
Reliability of Source A - Completely reliable B - Usually reliable C - Fairly reliable D - Not usually reliable E Unreliable F - Reliability cannot be judged
Accuracy of Data 1 - Confirmed by other sources 2 - Probably True 3 - Possibly True 4 Doubtful 5 Improbable 6 - Truth cannot be judged
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiralty_code
Processing / Exploitation Is your intelligence collection easily consumable? Standards Centralized data/information (not 10 portals to use) APIs Language issues? Threat intelligence platforms (TIPs) can help you here
Intelligence analysis Intelligence style guide Defines format and meanings of specific terms within your intelligence products Analysts who are able to deal with incomplete information and predict what has likely occurred and what is likely to happen. Encourage analysts to suggest multiple hypothesizes.
Not analysis Dealing with facts only (intelligence analysts aren't newspaper reporters) Reporting on the past only, no predictive intelligence Copy and pasting intelligence reports from vendors You have outsourced your intelligence function
Words of estimative probability Consistency in words used to estimate probability of things occurring or not occurring, i.e. 100% Certainty The General Area of Possibility 93% give or take about 6% Almost certain 75% give or take about 12% Probable 50% give or take about 10% Chances about even 30% give or take about 10% Probably not 7% give or take about 5% Almost certainly not 0% Impossibility Google search for: CIA words of estimative probability
Dissemination Intelligence products written with each piece of collection used graded and linked to source. Intelligence products sent to consumers based on topic and requirements met. What information gaps do we have?
Feedback loop We need to receive information from our intelligence customers on: Timeliness Relevance What requirements were met? This will allow identification of intelligence (collection) sources that are supporting your requirements and which aren't
Intelligence program KPIs Quantity How many intelligence reports produced? Quality Feedback from intelligence consumers Timeliness, relevance and requirements met
Item
Yes/ No
Regularly (bi-annually) updated requirements list that maps with your prioritized business risks.
Ad hoc requirements meets existing documented intelligence requirements
Documented production requirements
Documented intelligence requirements
Documented collection requirements
Documented linking of collection requirements to internal teams/capabilities or external providers (guidance) Regular assessment of guidance versus output from internal capabilities and external providers (collection management)
Item Intelligence collection is easily consumable, i.e. in a TIP
Yes/ No
Intelligence style guide Have an intelligence review and editing process Intelligence produced includes future predictions and doesn't just report on facts Sources used in intelligence products are linked and graded Knowledge gaps are identified in intelligence products and pushed back into the requirements part of the intelligence cycle Feedback is received from intelligence consumer/customer
Item KPIs are generated for the intelligence program KPIs are generated for each part of the intelligence cycle including for internal and external sources of intelligence collection Have an intelligence (collection) management function that handles requirements to assigned guidance
Yes/ No
Questions