本文由 DeepL 工具翻译，略有调整。
18th January 2002
To the Partners of the Nomad Investment Partnership.
The Nomad Investment Partnership was launched in early September 2001 and began investing on September 10th. In the brief period since inception the fund has risen 10.1%, which compares with a gain of 3.9% for the MSCI World Index. Unaudited gross NAV per share at the end of December was U$1101.42. Nomad is an absolute return fund and reference here to an index is simply to place our performance, short term as it is, in context. We expect to beat the index handsomely over time, but only as a byproduct of our absolute return orientation. We also expect the absolute return of the main indices to be modest over the next decade and so the index is not likely to be much of a return hurdle.
游牧人投资合伙公司于 2001 年 9 月初成立，9 月 10 日开始投资。在成立以来的短暂时间里，该基金上涨了 10.1%，而 MSCI 全球指数（MSCI World Index）的涨幅为 3.9%。截至 12 月底，未经审计的每股总资产净值为 1101.42 美元。Nomad 是一只绝对回报基金，在此提及指数只是为了将我们的短期业绩与上下文联系起来。我们期望在一段时间内大幅超越指数，但这只是我们绝对回报导向的副产品。我们还预计，未来十年主要指数的绝对回报率不会太高，因此指数不太可能成为我们的回报障碍。
You can expect from us an annual and interim letter (this is our inaugural annual letter), and Global Investment Reviews eight times a year in which we discuss our investment thoughts. From Nomad's administrator (Daiwa Securities Trust and Banking, contact Dane Schmidt +353 1603 9921 with your inquires) you can expect a monthly statement of your account and annual and interim financial statements starting in June 2002. We are considering hosting an open day once a year (any feedback on whether this would be a good idea would be appreciated) and we are always available for your inquiries by phone or letter. Nomad's orientation is genuinely long term, and more regular reports, daily, weekly, monthly or otherwise, are likely to be of little value to you, and may even be counterproductive for us.
您将收到我们的年度和中期信函（这是我们的首封年度信函），以及每年八次的《全球投资评论》，我们将在其中讨论我们的投资理念。Nomad 的管理人（Daiwa Securities Trust and Banking，如需咨询，请联系 Dane Schmidt +353 1603 9921）将从 2002 年 6 月起向您提供账户月结单以及年度和中期财务报表。我们正在考虑每年举办一次开放日（如有任何关于这是否是一个好主意的反馈意见，我们将不胜感激），我们随时欢迎您通过电话或信件进行咨询。Nomad 公司的定位是真正的长期发展，更多的定期报告，无论是每日、每周、每月还是其他形式的报告，对你们来说可能没有什么价值，对我们来说甚至会适得其反。
As it turns out our launch date was rather fortuitous. The price of businesses fell almost immediately and despite regular additional contributions by new investors we were able to invest a sizeable portion of the fund much faster than we would have anticipated and at prices which we feel will produce very satisfactory returns. We have made 18 investments to date which Bloomberg classify in 16 different sectors which are detailed overleaf. The Bloomberg sectoral categories are rather narrow and there is in fact a notable concentration in media (TV, newspapers and publishing) at around 21% of the portfolio and hotels, resorts and casinos which make up 12% of the fund. The next largest grouping is telecom services (mobile and cable) which make up 10% of the fund. The geographical distribution is as follows:south east Asia 32.8%; North America 23.6%; Europe 12.7% and other emerging markets 2.9%.
事实证明，我们的启动日期是相当幸运的。企业的价格几乎立即下跌，尽管有新投资者定期追加出资，我们还是能够以比预期快得多的速度，以我们认为会产生非常令人满意的回报的价格，投资了基金的相当大一部分。迄今为止，我们已进行了 18 项投资，彭博将其归入 16 个不同的行业，详见下文。彭博社的行业分类相当狭窄，事实上，媒体（电视、报纸和出版）明显集中，约占投资组合的 21%，酒店、度假村和赌场占基金的 12%。其次是电信服务（移动和有线电视），占基金的 10%。地理分布如下：东南亚 32.8%；北美 23.6%；欧洲 12.7%；其他新兴市场 2.9%。
When we evaluate potential investments, we are looking for businesses trading at around half of their real business value, companies run by owner-oriented management and employing capital allocation strategies consistent with long term shareholder wealth creation. Finding all three is rare, and that is why we think Nomad has a material advantage in being a global fund. We can look far and wide for candidates and simply are not required to invest in anything that does not fit. Chris Browne of Tweedy Browne has likened the research process to detective work or perhaps investigative journalism, and we could not agree more.
在评估潜在投资项目时，我们寻找的是以实际商业价值一半左右的价格交易的企业、由以所有者为导向的管理层经营的企业，以及采用与长期股东财富创造相一致的资本分配战略的企业。同时具备这三点的企业并不多见，这也是我们认为 Nomad 作为一家全球性基金具有重要优势的原因。我们可以在全球范围内寻找候选企业，而且根本不需要投资任何不合适的企业。特威迪-布朗公司的克里斯-布朗（Chris Browne）将研究过程比作侦探工作，或者说是新闻调查，我们对此深表赞同。
One feature of our investment letters will be to highlight one or two of our investments or discuss investment issues at large. For those of a particularly inquisitive or analytic nature we may in the future enclose some meeting notes as well. This time we have selected two current holdings which we hope will be typical of Nomad's stock picks. The first is International Speedway in the US, and second is Matichon in Thailand.
我们投资信函的一个特点是重点介绍我们的一两个投资项目或讨论整个投资问题。对于那些特别好奇或善于分析的人，我们今后可能还会附上一些会议记录。这一次，我们选择了目前持有的两只股票，希望它们能成为 Nomad 选股的典型代表。第一支是美国的 International Speedway，第二支是泰国的 Matichon。
International Speedway (approx. 3.7% of the portfolio at year end) owns and operates 12 motor racing circuits in the US including Daytona, Watkin's Glen and Talladega, and plays host to 20 of the 39 Nascar races. The National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing (Nascar) was founded in 1948 by Bill France who had organised motor races at Daytona Beach in the period before the war. During the war the beach circuit fell into disrepair and so on his return France set about renting local circuits to host races, but he felt that the sport really required a sanctioning body to set common standards for competitors and track safety (a relative rarity at the time) to lift its image from its moonshine legacy. After the American Automobile Association refused to endorse his idea France established Nascar himself and was announced its first president in 1948. From the beginning France intended Nascar to be exciting and publicly accessible, as well as sponsor friendly, and the formula evolved toward big fields of very fast cars (200mph+) on banked circuits surrounded by large atmospheric stadia.
International Speedway（年底时约占投资组合的 3.7%）在美国拥有并经营着 12 个赛车场，包括代托纳、沃特金格伦和塔拉迪加，并举办了 39 场 Nascar 比赛中的 20 场。全美库存车汽车竞赛协会（Nascar）由 Bill France 于 1948 年创立，战前他曾在代托纳海滩组织过赛车比赛。战争期间，海滩赛道年久失修，因此 France 回国后开始租用当地赛道举办比赛，但他认为这项运动确实需要一个认可机构，为参赛选手和赛道安全（当时相对罕见）制定统一标准，以提升其形象，摆脱其非正式的状态。在美国汽车协会拒绝接受他的想法后，France 自己成立了 Nascar，并于 1948 年被宣布为首任总裁。从一开始，France 就希望 Nascar 能让人兴奋、让公众参与，同时对赞助商友好，因此比赛规则逐渐演变为在大型体育场环绕的斜坡赛道上，由速度极快的赛车（时速超过 200 英里）组成的大型赛场。
Until quite recently motor racing has been a very fragmented sport: sanctioning bodies have tended to splinter into rival factions which form their own leagues, and the racetracks have developed on an ad hoc basis (some were originally perimeter roads to local airstrips) and remained under family ownership. Formula One with its dominant sanctioning body and almost totalitarian leadership under Bernie Ecclestone is both the exception, and due to its huge commercial success, the benchmark. International Speedway has grown through building and buying circuits throughout the south east and more recently elsewhere in the US. But the real prize from consolidation is that the firm has substantially improved its bargaining position with the broadcasting companies. Instead of their being more tracks and sanctioning bodies than media buyers, the tables have now been reversed. The attraction to advertisers is that Nascar runs races most weekends (good for filling programming schedules), is US only (unlike Formula One) and attracts middle America in droves. When the industry recently negotiated an exclusive seven-year media rights contract the rate doubled in year one, and for the period to 2007 are contracted to rise by a further 17% per annum. Whilst this is promising in itself such events are quickly discounted by the markets, and the shares rose to a peak at U$70 two years ago.
直到最近，赛车运动一直是一项非常分散的运动：认可机构往往分裂成相互对立的派别，形成自己的联盟，赛道则是临时发展起来的（有些赛道最初是通往当地简易机场的周边道路），并一直由家族所有。F1 赛车拥有占主导地位的认可机构和 Bernie Ecclestone 近乎独裁的领导，既是一个例外，又因其巨大的商业成功而成为标杆。International Speedway 通过在整个东南部以及最近在美国其他地区建造和购买赛道而发展壮大。但合并带来的真正好处是，公司大大改善了与电视广播公司的谈判地位。过去，赛道和认证机构多于媒体买家，而现在情况发生了逆转。对广告商的吸引力在于，Nascar 在大多数周末都有比赛（有利于填补节目表），而且只在美国举行（与一级方程式赛车不同），吸引了大批美国中产阶级。最近，该行业就一份为期 7 年的独家媒体转播权合同进行了谈判，第一年的转播费就翻了一番，到 2007 年，每年的转播费还将增长 17%。虽然这本身就很有希望，但这种情况很快就会被市场价格所反映，两年前该公司的股价最高曾涨到 70 美元。
Our interest is in how the windfall is being distributed: the France family (which owns Nascar) will take 10%, note this sum compares with much closer to 100% for Mr. Ecclestone's take of Formula One revenues, 65％ is divided between the tracks （of which ISCA earns the lion's share), and 25% goes in prize money to the drivers and teams. This final point may be important because as prize money increases it may establish a virtuous cycle of new entrants attracted by the increased “pot”, which in turn may raise viewing audiences and media attention. It is encouraging that the Chrysler racing team have recently announced their return to Nascar after a multiyear absence. In other words, the firm may be deferring part of the windfall to fund future growth, which will be incremental to the escalating media income.
我们感兴趣的是这笔意外之财是如何分配的：France 家族（Nascar 的所有者）将拿走 10%，请注意，这个数字与 Ecclestone 先生从一级方程式赛车收入中拿走的接近 100% 的数字相比，65% 的收入被分给了赛道（其中 ISCA 赚取了绝大部分），25% 的奖金被分给了车手和车队。最后这一点可能很重要，因为随着奖金的增加，可能会形成一个良性循环，新的参赛者会被增加的 "奖金 "所吸引，这反过来又会增加观众和媒体的关注度。令人鼓舞的是，克莱斯勒赛车队最近宣布在阔别多年后重返 Nascar。换句话说，该公司可能会推迟部分意外之财的使用，以资助未来的增长，而这将是不断攀升的媒体收入的增量。
The price of ISCA shares at the time of Nomad's investment (around half their peak level) was a small premium to replacement cost of the circuits and a valuation which discounted only low single digit growth in profits. Cash flow growth will likely be cyclically subdued in the near term and investors with a short-term time horizon, which appears to us to be the majority of professional investors, will have little to excite them. This is fine by us, because the outlook for the next five to ten years is very positive. Finally, how do CBS and Fox feel about their new Nascar contracts? They claim they are very encouraged; they now have to negotiate with one party to fill 40 weekend programming schedules and viewing audiences have exceeded their budgeted projections. Fox has recently bought a dedicated motorsport cable channel to host their Nascar coverage. Roll on contract negotiation in 2006! In discounting growth of just 3% to 4% the market valued the business as if it was just an average firm, when in our opinion International Speedway is a rock-solid franchise with improving economics and could be a multiyear winner for investors that are patient enough to wait.
游牧公司投资时，ISCA 股票的价格（约为最高价的一半）与赛车道重置成本相比溢价很小，而且估值仅考虑了低个位数的利润增长。在短期内，现金流的增长可能会受到周期性的抑制，短期投资者（在我们看来是大多数专业投资者）将不会感到兴奋。我们对此没有意见，因为未来五到十年的前景非常乐观。最后，哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）和福克斯公司（Fox）对他们的 Nascar 新合同有何感想？他们声称很受鼓舞；现在他们必须与一方进行谈判，以填补 40 个周末的节目安排，而收视观众也超出了他们的预算预测。福克斯公司最近买下了一个专门的赛车有线电视频道，用来播放他们的 Nascar 比赛。2006 年的合同谈判即将开始！我们认为，International Speedway 是一家经济效益不断改善的稳健的特许经营公司，对于有足够耐心等待的投资者来说，它可能是一个多年的赢家。
Matichon (3.2% of fund at year end) is Thailand's second Thai language newspaper and is a company we have known for many years and in which Marathon is also the third largest shareholder. We do not read Thai and take it on trust from Thai friends that the editorial content is pro-reform, and it is certainly tabloid in style which sets it aside from a Thailand's largest newspaper (Thai Rat) which is more “old Thailand”. Matichon is probably not the Washington Post, but it's healthily questioning, nonetheless. The paper appeals to the new generation of Thais that have grown up with a much higher living standards and more western values than their parents and it is interesting that circulation has grown at an accelerated rate since the Asian crisis. The firm is family run and has avoided the pitfalls of straying into new media or gambling on new titles. Instead, the firm has focused on raising longer term readership and margins. In an effort to promote circulation the cover price has been kept low, but this has the effect that the majority of revenues comes from advertising which is far more cyclical and means that revenues declined by a third peak to trough. The cost cutting effort however has been amazing, with the effect that cash flow in 2000 is 40% higher than 1996, on sales one third less! 2000 is the first year of a cyclical recovery in advertising, and rates are now 20% above their trough but around 50% below the previous cyclical peak. In other words, there may be a long way to go.
Matichon（年底占基金份额的 3.2%）是泰国第二大泰语报纸，也是我们认识多年的公司，马拉松也是该公司的第三大股东。我们不懂泰语，但我们相信泰国朋友说的，该报的社论内容是支持改革的，而且它的风格肯定是小报，这使它与泰国最大的报纸（《泰国鼠报》）不同，后者更偏向于 "老泰国"。Matichon 可能不是《华盛顿邮报》，但它的质疑是健康的。与父辈相比，新一代泰国人的生活水平更高，西方价值观更强，因此该报对他们很有吸引力，有趣的是，自亚洲危机以来，该报的发行量一直在加速增长。该公司由家族经营，避免了涉足新媒体，或在新项目上赌博。相反，该公司把重点放在提高长期读者群和利润率上。为了提高发行量，封面价格一直保持在较低水平，但这样做的结果是，大部分收入来自广告，而广告的周期性要强得多，这意味着收入从高峰到低谷下降了三分之一。然而，削减成本的努力是惊人的，结果是 2000 年的现金流比 1996 年增加了 40%，而销售额却减少了三分之一！2000 年是广告业周期性复苏的第一年，目前的增长率比低谷时期高出 20%，但比上一个周期性高峰时期低 50%左右。换句话说，可能还有很长的路要走。
So, what is Matichon worth? The shares peaked at Tb300 (U$12) in 1994 and have now declined to Tb50 (U$1, adjusting for the decline in the currency). The share price decline is all the more amazing as the firm is without debt. Our company is presently valued at 0.75x revenues or four times our estimate of normalised free cash flow. This is approx. one third of our estimate of its worth and may be as low as one quarter of the valuation of its western peers. The family owns 25% of the shares and has taken the gains from cost cutting to raise the dividend threefold since the trough, and so investors now have a 9% dividend yield whilst they wait for the cycle to improve. And improve slowly it is, rates are expected to rise gently this year and next, so patience is likely to be rewarded here too.
那么，Matichon 值多少钱呢？1994 年，该公司股价最高时达到 300 第纳尔（12 美元），目前已跌至 50 第纳尔（1 美元，根据货币贬值进行了调整）。由于公司没有负债，股价下跌的幅度就更加惊人了。我们公司目前的估值是收入的 0.75 倍，或我们估计的正常化自由现金流的四倍。这大约是我们对其价值估计的三分之一，可能低至西方同行估值的四分之一。该家族持有 25% 的股份，并利用削减成本的收益将股息提高了三倍，因此投资者现在可以获得 9% 的股息收益，同时等待经济周期的好转。目前，经济周期正在缓慢改善，预计利率将在今明两年温和上升，因此耐心等待也会得到回报。
So, nearly four months since inception where are we now? Our investments are presently priced in the markets at considerable discounts to our assessment of their real worth, performance is satisfactory, and we remain with substantial cash holdings of approximately 28% of the fund at year end, although you can expect this to decline markedly. Whilst we are conscious that holding cash does not meet our long-term investment goals (to say little of earning our incentive fees) we are ini no hurry to invest the money in companies that do not meet our criteria. The markets are very volatile, and we expect to operate with some cash or bond holdings as a matter of course. We also have many ideas that we are working through. You can also be assured that Marathon insiders are the largest group of investors in Nomad.
那么，成立近四个月以来，我们的情况如何呢？我们的投资目前在市场上的价格比我们对其实际价值的评估有相当大的折扣，业绩令人满意，年底时我们仍然持有大量现金，约占基金的 28%，尽管你可以预期这一比例会明显下降。尽管我们意识到持有现金并不符合我们的长期投资目标（更不用说赚取奖励费用了），但我们并不急于将资金投资于不符合我们标准的公司。市场非常不稳定，我们希望在经营过程中理所当然地持有一些现金或债券。我们还有很多想法正在研究中。您也可以放心，马拉松内部人士是 Nomad 最大的投资者群体。
As always, we value your support and welcome your comments.
我们一如既往地珍视您的支持，并欢迎您提出宝贵意见。
Yours sincerely
Nick Sleep