翻译：Ponge
翻译工具：Bob、DeepL、彩云小译、ChatGPT
概述
"Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff: It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back andhave mores to invest. You can't win until you do this." (Dave Ramsey)
「财务上的平和不在于赚多少：关键在于学会量入为出，这样你就可以攒下一些钱并有更多资金进行投资。只有做到这一点，你才能获胜。」——戴夫·拉姆齐
Good investing is all about getting more in return for what you have already paid. What you pay to own a business (or stock) is Price and what you get is Value. Price is certain and upfront. Value is a conjecture (albeit an intelligent one) and will unravel only over time in future. It is this contrast between price and value of a business (or stock) which leaves most market participants in a mystical enthrall of price while holding the idea of value as mythical or treat it in confused derision. In simple terms, value is an estimate of present worth of a business, as judged from estimated income flows (or cash flows) that a business is likely to generate over its assessed lifetime. Clearly, assessment of value will, therefore, depend upon the magnitude, certainty, timing pattern (early or late), volatility and longevity of those income flows. Judgment of these variables will depend upon the skills of the investor and the character of the business under consideration and the extent and accuracy of value will depend upon accuracy of judging these variables right. Successful investing will essentially call for judging the value right, setting the purchase price at a good discount (Margin of Safety) to the conjectured value, revisit the equation time to time (more to confirm and convince oneself and less to act) and to enjoy, with patience, the gravy train of investing volatility! As Charlie Munger would say "All intelligent investing is value investing - to acquire more than you are paying for. Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass."
好的投资就是要在已经付出的基础上获得更多回报。你为拥有一家企业（或股票）所付出的是价格，而你得到的则是价值。价格是确定和预付的，而价值则只能在未来逐渐展现出来（尽管这种展现方式很明智）。正是企业（或股票）价格与价值之间的差异让大多数市场参与者对价格产生了神秘的迷恋，同时将价值视为传说或在没搞清楚前就嘲笑它。简单来说，价值是根据企业在其评估生命周期内可能产生的估计收入流（或现金流）对企业现值的估计。因此，很明显，价值的评估将取决于这些收入流的规模、确定性、时间模式(早期或晚期)、波动性和持续时间。对这些变量的判断将取决于投资者的技能和所考虑的企业的性质，而价值的程度和准确性将取决于对这些变量判断正确与否的准确性。成功投资基本上需要正确评估价值，在猜测价值的基础上设置购买价格折扣（安全边际），定期重新审视评估的结果（更多是为了确认和说服自己，而不是行动），并耐心享受投资波动带来的好处！正如查理·芒格所说：「所有明智的投资都是价值投资——只要得到的比你付出的更多。投资就是找到一些优秀公司，然后坐收成果。」
The essential principles of investing have largely remained unchanged for more than 300 years of recorded history of organized investing that is available to the world. The principles and principal ideas for creating wealth through investing and successful investing approach largely remain unaltered. What does alter is the way people seek to apply them at a point of time based on their own understanding and interpretation of the principles or based on what may appear to be convenient or expedient to do so at a particular point of time. But principles per se remain unchanged. There are these famous words (that an experienced investor cringes at) "This time it is different", but it rarely, if ever, is different. Usually, much like the evolution of the society, which occurs over a series of many incremental steps, the changes in the character of the businesses are built step-by-step over a period of time and all the known principles of investing have the ability to account for and deal with these differences. However seemingly radical at the point of departure these may appear, but they are an invariate accumulation over a period of time and all the principles of investment are able to deal with these quite well. But it is our mindset which time to time either craves for leaving around our own foot print in sands of time by seeking to discover some new principles of investment or in a mistaken application of mind (when it may conveniently suit us because certain fads and fashions may overtake the markets) in which we can proclaim to the world about our own 'discovery' or 'finding'a brand new way of creating wealth.
在全世界有记录、相对正式的 300 多年投资历史中，投资的基本原则基本保持不变。借助成功的投资方法进行投资并创造财富的原则和主要思想基本上没有改变。真正改变的是人们根据自己对原则的理解和解释，或者根据在某个特定时间点看起来方便或便利的做法，在某个时间点寻求应用这些原则的方式。但原则本身并未改变。有这样一句名言（一个经验丰富的投资者会感到恶心）：「这次不一样」，但很少有情况真正不同。通常，就像社会的演变是通过一系列渐进的步骤发生的一样，企业特征的变化是在一段时间内逐步建立的，所有已知的投资原则都有能力来解释和处理这些差异。无论这些看起来多么激进，但它们是一段时间内不变的积累，所有的投资原则都能够很好地处理这些问题。但是，我们的思维方式时不时地渴望通过寻求发现一些新的投资原则，或者错误地应用这些原则的方式（当市场可能被某些风尚所影响时，这种错误的应用方式可能容易地适合当下），从而向全世界宣称我们「发现」或「找到」了一种全新的创造财富的方式。
Investment is not a get-rich-quick scheme; it is not even a method of making the highest gains in the shortest possible time, though at times such outcomes also occur. But when these outcomes occur, they are merely milestones in the long-term process of wealth creation; the reverse also equally occurs when disproportionate amount of wealth can be eroded in a very short period of time. So over a period of time, the great game really is in navigating through these twists and turns with knowledge, with discipline, with wisdom and with a due understanding of principles to ensure that navigatingis in correct direction, smooth, free from accidents and fruitful.
投资不是一种快速致富的计划；它甚至不是在最短时间内获得最高收益的方法，尽管有时也会出现这样的结果。但当这些结果发生时，它们只是财富创造长期过程中的一个节点；反之亦然，大量财富可以在很短的时间内被侵蚀。因此，随着时间的推移，真正重要的游戏在于通过知识、纪律、智慧和对原则的正确理解来指引我们前行，以确保我们前进的方向正确、顺畅、没有意外并且具有成效。
Fundamentally, investing is simple, but not easy. Simple, because it is not difficult to understand the essential principles of investing. Essentially what creates value are really simple ideas. It is about identifying a large opportunity (which is rich in possibilities yet possesses existing, strong fecundity) that has earnings growth marshalled with a high degree of character, or, the value accretive growth rather than value destructive growth, that has growth with longevity, predictability and relative smoothness, ensuring that the character of management lets the value of a business be nurtured, protected and shared equitably and applying suitable simple mathematical equation to discount all that future into the present. This is what is at the innards of fundamentals of investing. So investing as a concept is essentially simple in its core connotations, but it is not easy because apart from intellect, investing calls for wisdom, apart from knowledge it calls for discipline, and merely high IQ is no guarantee for great investment results, because doing it right, not only knowing it right, is as important. Even some of the best investors falter at doing it right rather than in knowing it right. More failures have occurred, even among the great investors, on account of the former rather than the latter. The difficult part is getting the right psychological traits, a disciplined behavioral make-up, a quiet sense of innate independent, curious mind. This is more likely to stand in good stead rather than only an ability to accurately confidence (but not arrogance and rigidity), a sense of serenity in face of adverse market situation and an predict every single quarter's earnings for the next 20 quarters.
从根本上说，投资是简单的，但并不容易。之所以简单，是因为理解投资的基本原则并不困难。实际上创造价值的东西非常简单，关键是找到一个具有高品质的利润增长机会（当前就具有成长性，且成长性很强，未来还具有丰富的可能性）。所谓高品质，是指价值增长应该是累进的，而不是破坏性的。这种增长具有持久性、可预测性和相对平稳性，并确保管理层的品格能够培育、保护和公平分享企业的价值。在找到这样的机会之后，应用合适的简单数学方程式，将所有的未来折现到现在。这就是投资基本原理的核心所在。因此，投资作为一个概念，其核心内涵本质上是简单的，但它并不容易，因为除了智力之外，投资还需要智慧；除了知识之外，它还需要纪律性；仅凭高智商并不能保证出色的投资结果，因为正确地做事情与仅仅知道如何做同样重要。即使是一些最优秀的投资者，也会在「行」而不是「知」方面犯错。哪怕是最伟大的投资者，大量的错误发生在「行」而不是「知」上。困难之处在于获得正确的心理认知、纪律性的行为表现、内在独立又充满好奇的平静感。这比仅有准确自信（但不是傲慢和僵化）、面对逆境市场情况时保持镇定以及预测未来20个季度每个季度收益更有可能帮助你站稳脚跟。
In that sense, good investing is a heady mix of both a lovely, beauteous art and a very precise looking science. But it is not just one of the two. Science illuminates while the art is pregnant with possibilities and imbued with vivid imagination. Reality of investing lies between the two: It is neither a perfect science, like physics and mathematics, nor is it a complete art like painting, of 'beauty in the eyes of the beholder' kind. So, reality lies between the two. The art part is about understanding the quality and character of the business, of the people behind the business, appreciating what makes the business work and what makes it fail, what makes it robust and what makes it brittle. Understanding these traits is the art part. The art part also covers the wisdom, discipline, patience and independent mind aspects of investing.
在这个意义上，良好的投资是美丽、优美的艺术和非常精确的科学的完美结合。但它不仅仅是两者之一。科学揭示了真相，而艺术则充满可能性和生动想象力。投资的现实介于两者之间：它既不像物理学和数学那样是完美的科学，也不像绘画那样是「一万个人眼中有一万个哈姆雷特」。因此，现实处于两者之间。艺术部分涉及理解企业质量和特征，了解企业背后的人，了解是什么让企业成功，是什么让它失败，是什么让它变得稳健，又是什么让它变得脆弱。理解这些特点就属于艺术范畴。艺术部分还包括投资的智慧、纪律、耐心和独立思考等方面。
Transcribing the art part into a tangible part and putting that tangible part into a working model including a mathematical one, is what the science part is. So, in some sense, where the art part ends, it feeds into the science part of the investing and then the science part seemingly conjures up the accurate answer. Depending upon their view point, many tend to see investing as completely capricious, arbitrary, a volatile game akin to gambling and almost unpredictable. And at the other extreme, there are some who reduce investing exercise to purely a mathematical model or a heuristic extension of crowd behavior, completely divorced from the underlying fundamental ideas such as the quality of the business, the quality of management, size of opportunity, growth and valuation.
将艺术部分转化为有形部分，并将有形部分转化为包括数学部分在内的工作模型，这就是科学部分。因此，从某种意义上说，艺术部分的结尾是投资的科学部分，然后科学部分似乎可以勾勒出准确的答案。根据他们的观点，许多人倾向于将投资视为完全反复无常、随心所欲、类似于赌博的反复无常的游戏，而且几乎是不可预测的。而在另一个极端，有些人将投资实践简化为纯粹的数学模型或群体行为的一种外在表现，完全脱离了基本的理念，如业务质量、管理质量、机会规模、增长和估值。
But the reality is that the truth lies between the two. It is a judicious and beautiful confluence of the best ideas of art and the best that science can give. The resultant melting pot retains the beauty, on one hand,and elegant simplicity and mathematical rigour, on the other: investing is about that. It is about combining these variegated ideas and trying to gaze into the future. When you try to do so, it never really is or can be precise. You are leaping into the dark. It is a leap of faith which takes you there. The past does guide you because the past has helped you in understanding probable contours and shapes of conditions that you are likely to find in the future,but not always so.
In final analysis staring into the future and getting there is akin to a leap of faith. No amount of advance preparation completely equips you to handle that probable future and investing is really about this. It is about collating, assimilating and using all the insights about a business available at a point of time, analyzing it from diverse perspectives (some more akin to art while others closer to science), translating it all into a workable model (a melodious symphony rather than a cacophony of jutting out blocks of data points and information) and finally, forecasting of that future. When that process is done with integrity, intensity and intellect (in that order), the outcome is normally good. In good investing, these 3is combined together produce a vivid image of beautiful future, and a more replicable future on a sustained basis. And the path to outstanding value creation. Lao Tzu says, "I have just three things to teach: simplicity, patience, compassion. These three are your greatest treasures." In good investing, read it as simplicity (of business), patience (of investor) and passion (for quality).
但事实是，真相介于两者之间。它是艺术的最佳思想和科学所能提供的最佳思想的明智而美丽的结合。两者融合产生的结果，一方面保留了美感，另一方面保留了优雅的简洁性和数学的严谨性：投资就是这样，它将这些杂乱无章的想法结合起来，并试图展望未来。当你尝试这样做时，它从来都不是真正精确的，也不可能是准确的。你正在跳入黑暗中。这是一个需要信仰支持才能完成的飞跃。过去的确指引着你，因为过去有助于你理解未来可能遇到的大致情形，但并非总是如此。归根结底，展望未来并实现它就像是一次信仰的飞跃。无论多少事先准备都不能完全让你掌握未来的所有可能性，而投资就是要处理这种情况。投资的过程，往往是收集、吸收和利用某个时间点上可用的所有有关企业的见解，从不同角度进行分析（有些更接近艺术，而其他则更接近科学），将其全部翻译成一个可行的模型（一个悦耳动听的交响乐，而不是充满了零散数据点和信息块的杂音），最后预测那个未来。当这个过程辅以诚实、勤奋和思考（按照这个顺序）完成时，结果通常是好的。在良好的投资中，这三种因素结合起来产生了美好未来的生动形象。而且，这种未来可复制、可持续，同时也是创造卓越价值的途径。老子说：「我有三宝，持而保之；一曰慈；二曰俭；三曰不敢为天下先。」在好的投资中，可以将其解读为（业务）简单、（投资者）耐心和（对高质量标的）充满热情。
Returns are tangible but the risk is not. Hence, the returns appear as real to the investors but risk appears as amorphous. The returns can be real, if and only if, they are earned by undertaking judicious and intelligent risk. Market and investors often behave as if the risk is unreal or an irrelevant trivia. But the truth is a polar opposite. This is where the concept of quality of return comes, as contradistinguished from, the quantum of returns. The ideas of certainty of growth vis-à-vis quantum of growth, quantum of growth vis-à-vis quality of growth and quality of growth vis-à-vis valuation, are the ideas which define the quality of returns or the idea of risk. In the similar vein, markets are not linear and hence, equity returns cannot be so. But investors often behave as if the markets are linear. They would like to see absolute returns when markets are falling and the relatively superior returns when markets are on ascendance. But absolute and relative returns are like two rabbits. When you try to catch the both simultaneously, you get neither in your hands. In investing, it is worthwhile to follow the absolute returns. When done well on that count, the relative returns also usually follow. It is impossible to operate only on the good part of the market curve and always being able to avoid the bad one. Those incredible 'timing' skills are not well-endowed or proven; certainly, not with the most of the market participants. Equity investing is indeed long-term even though it is not considered fashionable these days, to think or say so. But, that is the enduring truth of the equity investing.
回报是有形的，但风险却不是。因此，回报对投资者来说似乎很真实，而风险则显得模糊不清。只有通过审慎而明智地承担风险，才能获得真正的回报。市场和投资者经常表现得好像风险是不真实的，或者是无关紧要的琐事，但事实恰恰相反。这就是回报质量（quality of return）的概念，与之相对的概念是回报速度（quantum of return）。增长的确定性与增长的速度、增长的速度与增长的质量、增长的质量与估值之间的关系，界定了回报的质量或风险的概念。同样，市场不是线性的，因此，股票回报不可能是线性的。但投资者往往表现得好像市场是线性的。他们希望在市场下跌时看到绝对收益，在市场上升时又能够跑赢大多数人。但是，绝对收益和相对收益就像两只兔子。当你试图同时抓住它们两个时，你手里什么都没有。在投资中，追求绝对收益是值得的。如果在这方面做得好，相对收益通常也会随之而来。不可能只在市场上行时进行投资，而总能在市场下行时全身而退。那些令人难以置信的「择时」技能并不被广大市场参与者所拥有或证实；股票投资的确是一种长期投资，尽管这种思考或说法现今已不再流行了。但这正是股票投资的永恒真理。
Fixed-income investing can, at best, maintain one's wealth. It cannot multiply. Sometimes, it fails to even maintain the wealth, what with, the rigors of inflation and taxation. Good investing is really about creating future income streams, creating bigger wealth or value and really providing alternatives. In other words, it is not just about creating wealth but making wealth work for you rather than you working for wealth.That is at the heart of good investing because it lets you be free from the tyrannies of the day- to-day engaging into mundane activities that one is compelled to. Many are good at creating wealth, but only a few are good at managing wealth, by successfully creating a running income stream from the wealth and expanding value further. To create greater wealth out of wealth is really the crux of investing, so that it lets you do what you want to rather than what you have to. All these ideas are explored at some length in the ensuing pages.
固定收益投资最多只能维持一个人的财富，无法实现财富增值。有时候，由于通货膨胀和税收的严峻影响，甚至无法维持财富水平。好的投资实际上是创造未来的收入流，创造更大的财富或价值，并提供真正可行的选择。换句话说，它不仅仅是创造财富，而是让财富为你工作，而不是你为财富工作。这是优秀投资的核心，因为它使你摆脱日常琐事带来的压力束缚。很多人擅长创造财富，但只有少数人擅长管理财富，少有人能够成功地从财富中创造出持续的收入流，并进一步扩大价值。从财富中创造更多的财富是投资的关键所在，这样你就可以做你想做的事情而不是你必须做的事情。所有这些想法都会在接下来几页详尽探讨。
"It is not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." (Robert Kiyosaki)
「重要的不是你赚了多少钱，而是你存了多少钱，以及金钱本身为你工作有多努力，以及你存了多少代人。」——罗伯特·清崎