Skip to content

Latest commit

 

History

History
108 lines (58 loc) · 17.2 KB

19690529_Letter_RR.md

File metadata and controls

108 lines (58 loc) · 17.2 KB
Raw

原文信息：

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

TELEPHONE 042-4110

May 29th, 1969

1969 年 5 月 29 日

To My Partners:

致各位合伙人：

About eighteen months ago I wrote to you regarding changed environmental and personal factors causing me to modify our future performance objectives.

大约 18 个月前，我写信告诉大家，因为环境的改变，因为我个人情况的改变，我有必要调整一下我们未来的业绩目标。

The investing environment I discussed at that time and on which I have commented in various other letters has generally become more negative and frustrating as time has passed. Maybe I am merely suffering from a lack of mental flexibility. (One observer commenting on security analysts over forty stated: “They know too many things that are no longer true.”)

我在那封信里讨论了当时的投资环境。在后来的信中，我也多次分析投资环境。总的来说，从那时起到现在，投资环境越来越恶劣，越来越艰难。或许是我脑筋死板不灵活。（有人这么评价四十岁以上的证券分析师：“他们知道的很多东西都过时了。”）

However, it seems to me that: (1) opportunities for investment that are open to the analyst who stresses quantitative factors have virtually disappeared, after rather steadily drying up over the past twenty years; (2) our $100 million of assets further eliminates a large portion of this seemingly barren investment world, since commitments of less than about $3 million cannot have a real impact on our overall performance, and this virtually rules out companies with less than about $100 million of common stock at market value; and (3) a swelling interest in investment performance has created an increasingly short-term oriented and (in my opinion) more speculative market.

我现在看到的情况是：(1) 通过定量分析能找到的投资机会，在过去二十年里稳步减少，现在几乎找不到了；(2) 我们现在有 1 亿美元的资产，本来投资机会就少，还有很多我们买不了，因为 300 万美元以下的投资对我们的总体业绩没什么意义，市值 1 亿美元以下的股票，我们都不能买；(3) 追逐投资业绩的人越来越多，股市的眼光越来越短，投机氛围越来越重。

The October 9th, 1967 letter stated that personal considerations were the most important factor among those causing me to modify our objectives. I expressed a desire to be relieved of the (self-imposed) necessity of focusing 100% on BPL. I have flunked this test completely during the last eighteen months. The letter said: I hope limited objectives will make for more limited effort. It hasn't worked out that way. As long as I am “on stage”, publishing a regular record and assuming responsibility for management of what amounts to virtually 100% of the net worth of many partners, I will never be able to put sustained effort into any non-BPL activity. If I am going to participate publicly. I can't help being competitive. I know I don't want to be totally occupied with out-pacing an investment rabbit all my life. The only way to slow down is to stop.

我在 1967 年 10 月 9 日的信中说了，我之所以要调整目标有几个原因，其中最重要的原因是个人因素。我一直把 100% 的精力投入到巴菲特合伙基金中，这是我自己强加给自己的。在那封信中，我说了，我想摆脱这种压力。在过去这 18 个月里，我发现我根本做不到。我在信中说：“我希望目标定得低一些，我也可以少努力一些。”目标低了，但我的努力没少。只要我“在场上”，定期公开业绩，承担为众多合伙人管理资产的责任（很多合伙人把自己全部的资产都交给我打理），我就永远不可能无拘无束地去做合伙基金以外的事。只要我是公开参与，就忍不住要争强好胜。我心里明白，我不想自己一辈子都在比拼投资，都在和一只兔子赛跑。要慢下来只有一个办法：结束。

Therefore, before yearend. I intend to give all limited partners the required formal notice of my intention to retire. There are, of course, a number of tax and legal problems in connection with liquidating the Partnership, but overall, I am concerned with working out a plan that attains the following objectives:

年底之前，我会向所有有限合伙人发出正式通知，就我退休的打算发出声明。清算合伙基金涉及大量纳税和法律问题，但是我最关心的是做好下面几件事：

  1. The most important item is that I have an alternative regarding money management to suggest to the many partners who do not want to handle this themselves. Some partners of course, have alternatives of their own in which they have confidence and find quite acceptable. To the others, however, I will not hand over their money with a "good luck". I intend to suggest an alternative money manager to whom I will entrust funds of my relatives and others for whom I have lifetime financial responsibility. This manager has integrity and ability and will probably perform as well or better than I would in the future (although nowhere close to what he or I have achieved in the past). He will be available to any partner, so that no minimum size for accounts will cause any of you a problem. I intend, in the future, to keep in general touch with what he is doing, but only on an infrequent basis with any advice on my part largely limited to a negative type.
  1. 最重要的一件事是，有许多合伙人不想自己打理资产，我要为他们推荐一个资产管理的途径。有些合伙人自己就有很多选择，他们对自己的选择很自信、也很放心。但是，有些合伙人则不然，我不能就把钱还给他们，说声“好运”，就完了。我打算向他们推荐另外一位资产管理人。无论是我的亲戚，还是我一生要为其提供投资建议的其他人，我都会放心的把他们的资金交给这个人管理。他人品和能力都很好，他将来的业绩可能和我继续做下去差不多（但肯定不如他或者我过去取得的业绩）。我们的任何合伙人都可以投资给他，没有账户最低金额的限制。将来，我会和他保持一定的联系，对他的投资情况有个大概了解，但只是偶尔关注，而且我提建议的话，基本上也只限于否定意见。
  1. I want all partners to have the option of receiving cash and possibly readily marketable securities (there will probably be only one where this will apply) where I like both the prospects and price but which partners will be able to freely convert to cash if they wish.
  1. 我希望所有合伙人都可以自由选择，愿意获得现金的可以获得现金，愿意获得有价证券的可以获得有价证券。有价证券中应该只有一只是可以随时卖出变现的。这些股票的前景和价格，是我都非常看好的，但是合伙人可以自由选择是否将有价证券变成现金。
  1. However, I also want all partners to have the option of maintaining their proportional interests in our two controlled companies (Diversified Retailing Company Inc. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) and one other small "restricted" holding. Because these securities will be valued unilaterally by me at fair value, I feel it is essential that, if you wish, you can maintain your proportionate interest at such valuation.
  1. 我也希望所有合伙人能有这个选择，即按权益比例相应获得我们的两家控股公司（多元零售公司和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司）和一家规模较小的“受限制的”公司的股份。因为这些股票的公允价值完全是我估算的，所以我认为一定要给各位这个选择权，如果愿意的话，各位可以根据我的估值，按权益比例获得控股公司的相应股份。
  • However, these securities are not freely marketable (various SEC restrictions apply to “control” stock and non-registered stock) and they will probably be both non-transferable and non-income -producing for a considerable period of time. Therefore, I want you to be able to go either way in our liquidation - either stick with the restricted securities or take cash equivalent. I strongly like all of the people running our controlled businesses (joined now by the Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois, a $100 million plus, extremely well-run bank, purchased by Berkshire Hathaway earlier this year), and want the relationship to be life long. I certainly have no desire to sell a good controlled business run by people I like and admire, merely to obtain a fancy price. However, specific conditions may cause the sale of one operating unit at some point.
  • 但是，这些股票并不能在市场上自由买卖（SEC 对控股股东的股票和未注册上市的股票有各种限制规定），而且在很长时间里可能也不能转让、不能带来收入。在清算过程中，我希望给各位提供自由选择权：留下受限制的股票或获得等价的现金。我特别欣赏我们的控股公司的经营者（我们又多了两个新成员：伊利诺伊国民银行 (Illinois National Bank) 和罗克福德信托公司 (Trust Company of Rockford)。伊利诺伊国民银行是一家资产规模在 1 亿美元以上、经营特别出色的银行，是伯克希尔哈撒韦今年年初收购的），希望和他们的关系可以地久天长。控股公司有我欣赏和敬佩的经营者，就算别人出价再高，我都无意出售。但是，在特定情况下，可能会出售控股公司下面的某个业务部门。

I believe we will have a liquidation program which will accomplish the above objectives. Our activities in this regard should cause no change in your tax planning for 1969.

在清算过程中，我们应该能把上面这几件事做好。我们的清算活动不会对各位 1969 年的纳税安排产生影响。

One final objective, I would like very much to achieve (but which just isn't going to happen) is to go out with a bang. I hate to end with a poor year, but we are going to have one in 1969. My best guess is that at yearend, allowing for a substantial increase in value of controlled companies (against which all partners except me will have the option of taking cash), we will show a breakeven result for 1969 before any monthly payments to partners. This will be true even if the market should advance substantially between now and yearend, since we will not be in any important position which will expose us to much upside potential.

我还有一件非常想做的事，我特别想画一个圆满的句号，可惜事与愿违。我不想结束的这年业绩惨淡，但是 1969 年就是这样的一年。我估计到今年年末，算上控股公司价值的大幅上升（除了我之外，所有合伙人都可以选择变现），不算向合伙人支付的每月利息，我们的业绩也就是持平而已。即使从现在起到年末，股市大涨，我们也不会受益。我们不会投入任何重大仓位，所以无法从上涨中受益。

Our experience in workouts this year has been atrocious - during this period I have felt like the bird that inadvertently flew into the middle of a badminton game. We are not alone in such experience, but it came at a time when we were toward the upper limit of what has been our historical range of percentage commitment in this category.

今年我们的套利投资做得特别不顺，我感觉我像误入羽毛球场的一只小鸟。有这样经历的，不只是我们，但是我们今年在套利类中的投资占比达到了历史最高水平，结果却出了这样的事。

Documenting one's boners is unpleasant business. I find "selective reporting" even more distasteful. Our poor experience this year is 100% my fault. It did not reflect bad luck, but rather an improper assessment of a very fast-developing governmental trend. Paradoxically, I have long believed the government should have been doing (in terms of the problem attacked – not necessarily the means utilized) what it finally did - in other words, on an overall basis, I believe the general goal of the activity which has cost us substantial money is socially desirable and have so preached for some time. Nevertheless, I didn't think it would happen. I never believe in mixing what I think should happen (socially) with what I think will happen in making decisions - in this case, we would be some millions better off if I had.

谁都不愿意在白纸黑字上把自己的错误写出来，但是我看不起报喜不报忧的行为。我们今年的投资失利完全是我的错，不是运气不好，是我的评估失误了，误判了一个发展变化很快的政府趋势。这里其实有个矛盾。我一直认为，政府最后做的这件事，早就该做了（我的意思是，政府解决的这个问题是早就该解决的，但并不认同政府使用的手段）。换句话说，政府做了这件事，我们亏了很多钱，但我认为政府做这件事对社会有好处，也一直倡议政府做这件事。但是，在此之前，我认为政府不会做这件事。我一贯的主张是：做决策的时候，根本不应该把自己认为应该怎样（对社会有益）和实际会怎样混为一谈。要是我不这么想的话，我们就能少亏几百万了。

Quite frankly, in spite of any factors set forth on the earlier pages. I would continue to operate the Partnership in 1970, or even 1971, if I had some really first class ideas. Not because I want to, but simply because I would so much rather end with a good year than a poor one. However. I just don't see anything available that gives any reasonable hope of delivering such a good year and I have no desire to grope around, hoping to "get lucky" with other people's money. I am not attuned to this market environment and I don't want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don't understand just so I can go out a hero.

说实话，虽然前面说了这么多，要是真有特别好的投资机会，我愿意 1970 年甚至 1971 年继续管理合伙基金。不是因为我还想接着做，只是因为我太想完美收官了，不想以业绩惨淡的一年谢幕。可惜，我看不到任何机会，看不到任何希望，没办法把最后一年的业绩做好。我也不想拿别人的钱误打误撞碰运气。我和现在的市场环境不合拍，不想为了辉煌谢幕而做自己不懂的投资，不想毁了这么多年的好业绩。

Therefore, we will be liquidating holdings throughout the year, working toward a residual of the controlled companies, the one "investment letter" security, the one marketable security with favorable long-term prospects, and the miscellaneous "stubs", etc. of small total value which will take several years to clean up in the Workout category.

话已至此，在今年剩下的时间里，我们将对持股进行清算，最后只留控股公司、一只未上市的证券以及一只长期前景良好的有价证券，还有一些套利类中零碎的投资，它们总价值很小，但需要几年才能清理完。

I have written this letter a little early in lieu of the mid-year letter. Once I made a decision, I wanted you to know. I also wanted to be available in Omaha for a period after you received this letter to clear up anything that may be confusing in it. In July, I expect to be in California.

这封信就算今年的年中信了，写的比平时早，因为我决定好了，就想告诉各位。我也希望各位在收到这封信后，我还能在奥马哈停留一段时间，回答各位提出的问题。7 月份，我会去加州。

Some of you are going to ask, "What do you plan to do?" I don't have an answer to that question. I do know that when I am 60, I should be attempting to achieve different personal goals than those which had priority at age 20. Therefore, unless I now divorce myself from the activity that has consumed virtually all of my time and energies during the first eighteen years of my adult life, I am unlikely to develop activities that will be appropriate to new circumstances in subsequent years.

有的合伙人可能会问：“你打算做什么？”这个问题，我没答案。我只知道，有些东西是 20 岁的我非常想要的，但当我 60 岁的时候，自己应该有不一样的追求。我现在做的事，是我长大成人以后就一直在做的，18 年了，它消耗了我的所有时间和精力。今后的我要过一种新生活，除非我与现在做的事一刀两断，否则我适应不了今后的生活。

We will have a letter out in the Fall, probably October, elaborating on the liquidation procedure, the investment advisor suggestion, etc...

秋天，或许在十月份左右，我们会给大家写一封信，详细介绍清算情况、投资建议等。

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett

沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上

WEB/glk

Footnotes

  1. 倒数第三段中表明，这封信就算今年的年中信（mid-year letter）了。 ↩