原文信息：
- 标题：1969 October Letter to Partners
- 作者：Warren Buffett
- 发表时间：1969-10-09
- 链接：Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970
- 中文翻译参考：RanRan
- 整理：孙萧萧
- 校译：
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.
610 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131
TELEPHONE 042-4110
October 9th, 1969
1969 年 10 月 9 日
To My Partners:
致各位合伙人：
Here is my present estimate of the BPL calendar for the months to come:
以下是巴菲特合伙基金今后几个月的时间安排：
(1) This letter - to tell you something of Bill Ruane, the money manager within my knowledge who ranks the highest when combining the factors of integrity, ability and continued availability to all partners. I also want to comment upon the present range of expectations involved in deciding on a bond-stock mix.
(1) 在这封信里，我会给大家介绍比尔·鲁安 (Bill Ruane)。综合考虑人品、能力以及是否能长期接纳我们的所有合伙人，在我认识的所有资产管理人中，比尔·鲁安是最佳人选。我还会分析一下在当前情况下如何决定债券和股票的配比，以及各种决策的预期。
(2) Late November - the required thirty days formal notice of my intent to retire from the Partnership at the end of the year.
(2) 11 月末：我会按照合同规定，提前 30 天正式通知各位，就我在年底从合伙基金退休的打算发出声明。
(3) Early December - a package of publicly available material, as well as some general comments by me relating to our controlled companies. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (owning the textile business, Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois, National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company and Sun Newspapers) and Diversified Retailing Company (owning Hochschild, Kohn & Co. and Associated Cotton Shops). I want you to have ample time to study the material relating to such companies before you make any decision to hold, sell or buy such securities after distribution to you in early January. I will solicit written questions from partners (I don't want to talk to you individually about such companies, as I want all partners to obtain exactly the same information) and then have a further mailing late in December, giving all questions received relating to these companies along with my answers, if possible. I still anticipate having a plan enabling partners to promptly convert such controlled company holdings to cash, if they wish.
(3) 12 月初：我会将我们的控股公司的公开资料寄给各位并进行一些简单的介绍。我们的两家控股公司是伯克希尔哈撒韦 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)（拥有纺织业务、伊利诺伊国民银行、罗克福德信托公司、国民赔偿公司、国民火灾与海事保险公司以及太阳报业）和多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing Company)（拥有霍赫希尔德•科恩公司和联合棉布商店）。控股公司的股票会在 1 月份分配给大家。在各位决定持有、卖出或买入之前，我希望各位能有足够的时间研究这些公司的相关材料。到时候，我会向各位合伙人征集问题，请各位合伙人以书面的形式将问题发送给我（为保证所有合伙人都获得一样的信息，我不会与各位单独讨论这些公司）。12 月末，我会再写一封信给各位，集中解答收到的所有问题。我预计我们会作出安排，如果合伙人愿意的话，可以将控股公司股份立即变现。
(4) About January 5th - (a) a cash distribution amounting to at least 56% (probably more - depending upon what percentage of our remaining holdings are sold before yearend) of your January 1, 1969 capital, less any distributions (the regular monthly payments many of you receive) or borrowings by you during 1969, (b) your proportional share of our holdings in Diversified Retailing Company Inc. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. I which, if you dispose of them, will bring 30% - 35% (my estimate of value will be made at yearend) of your January 1, 1969 capital.
(4) 1 月 5 日左右：(a) 将现金分配给合伙人，分配比例为各位合伙人 1969 年 1 月 1 日资本的 56% 以上（如果年末之前能将更多的股份卖出，现金分配比例会更高），其中会扣除 1969 年向合伙人每月发放的利息或贷款；(b) 将多元零售公司和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股份按权益比例分配给合伙人。如果合伙人将自己分配到的控股公司股份卖出，可获得其 1969 年 1 月 1 日资本的 30% - 35%（我会在年末给出控股公司的估值）。
We may make substantial additional sales before yearend - if so, the early January cash distribution will be somewhat larger than the 56% mentioned above. If we don't, such sales will be made during the first half of 1970 and an interim distribution made. Residual assets will be sold at appropriate times and I believe not more than 10% of our present asset value will remain after June 30th, 1970 pending a final distribution when all assets and liabilities have been cleaned up.
在年末之前，我们卖出的股票数量可能远远高于预期，1 月初的现金分配比例可能高于上述的 56%。如果卖出股票的数量未达到预期，我们将先分配一部分现金，并在 1970 年上半年继续卖出。我们将选择合适的时机卖出剩余资产，预计 1970 年 6 月 30 日之后，我们剩余的资产价值将不到当前资产价值的 10%。在所有资产和负债都清理完毕后，我们将进行一次最终分配。
Unless there is a further substantial decline in the market. I still expect about a breakeven performance before any monthly payments for 1969. We were lucky - if we had not been in liquidation this year, our results would have been significantly worse. Ideas that looked potentially interesting on a "continuing" basis have on balance performed poorly to date. We have only two items of real size left - one we are selling as I write this and the other is a holding of limited marketability representing about 7-1/2% of the outstanding stock of Blue Chip Stamps which we may sell via a registered public offering around yearend, depending upon market conditions and other factors.
1969 年，除非市场出现大跌，我仍然认为，不计算每月的利息，我们的收益会持平。我们运气很好，如果不是今年清算了，我们的业绩会差很多。之前，我发现了一些“长期”看好的机会。到目前为止，这些机会整体表现欠佳。在我们持有的仓位中，现在规模较大的股票只剩两只了。其中一只，在我写这封信时，我们正在卖出。另外一只是蓝筹印花 (Blue Chip Stamps)，我们持有它流通股的 7.5%，它现在流动性有限，但是今年年末可能会发行上市，到时看市场情况如何，我们可能会把这部分股票卖出。
(5) March 1st. 1970 - John Harding expects to leave Buffett Partnership. Ltd. and open a branch office in Omaha for Ruane, Cunniff & Stires. Bill Scott and I will be available at BPL offices to help any partners who are desirous of purchasing bonds, tax-free or taxable. We will set aside the month of March to make our services available without cost to those who want to acquire bonds. Because of some experience we have in analysis and purchasing, as well as the access we have to wholesale markets. I think it is likely we can save material elements of cost as well as help select better relative values for those of you who wish to invest in bonds. After April 1st, however, we want to be out of any form of personal advisory activity.
(5) 1970 年 3 月 1 日：约翰•哈丁将离开巴菲特合伙基金，为 Ruane, Cunniff & Stires公司在奥马哈开设办事处。比尔•斯科特和我会留在我们的办公室，帮助有需要的合伙人购买免税或应税债券。我们会把三月份的时间留出来，免费帮助希望购买债券的合伙人。我们有分析和购买债券的经验，而且我们买债券的手续费低，所以我们应该能帮合伙人选出比较好的债券，而且还能省不少费用。4 月 1 日之后，我们将不再提供任何私人咨询服务。
(6) After March, 1970 - Bill and I will continue to office in Kiewit Plaza, spending a very minor portion of our time completing the wind-up of BPL. This will mean filing tax returns for 1970 and probably 1971 resolving minor assets and liabilities etc.
(6) 1970 年 3 月以后：比尔和我仍然会留在基威特大厦的办公室，只拿出很少的时间来完成巴菲特合伙基金清算收尾工作，包括申报 1970 年的税项，可能还要在 1971 年继续处理剩余的一小部分资产和负债。
Now, to Bill Ruane - we met in Ben Graham's class at Columbia University in 1951 and I have had considerable opportunity to observe his qualities of character, temperament and intellect since that time. If Susie and I were to die while our children are minors, he is one of three trustees who have carte blanche on investment matters - the other two are not available for continuous investment management for all partners, large or small.
现在，该介绍比尔·鲁安 (Bill Ruane) 了。我和比尔·鲁安是 1951 年认识的，当时我们都在哥伦比亚大学向本•格雷厄姆学习。我们相识多年，我对他的品格、性情和才智非常了解。如果苏茜和我身故，我们的孩子成了孤儿，我们委托了三个人全权负责投资事宜，比尔·鲁安是其中之一。我们还有另外两个委托人，但他们无法一直为所有合伙人打理资产。
There is no way to eliminate the possibility of error when judging humans particularly in regard to future behavior in an unknown environment. However, decisions have to be made - whether actively or passively - and I consider Bill to be an exceptionally high probability decision on character and a high probability one on investment performance. I also consider it likely that Bill will continue as a money manager for many years to come.
看人不可能一点不出错，要判断一个人将来会怎样就更难了。这样的判断我们还必须得做，无论是主动的，还是被动的。我认为，选比尔，从他的品格上看，有特别高的概率是对的；从他的投资业绩上看，也有很高的概率是对的。我也认为比尔应该会长期做资产管理工作。
Bill has recently formed a New York Stock Exchange firm, Ruane, Cunniff & Stires, Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, N.Y. 10004, telephone number (212) 344-6700. John Harding presently plans to establish an office for the firm in Omaha about March 1st, 1970. Bill manages accounts individually on a fee basis and also executes brokerage for the accounts - presently with some portion of the brokerage commissions used to offset a portion of the investment advisory fee. His method of operation allows monthly withdrawals on a basis similar to BPL - as a percentage of capital and unrelated to realized or unrealized gain or loss. It is possible he may form some sort of pooled account but such determinations will be made between him and those of you who elect to go with him. I, of course, will not be involved with his operation. I am making my list of partners available to him and he will be writing you fairly soon regarding a trip he plans to make before yearend to Omaha, Los Angeles and Chicago, so that those of you who wish to meet him may do so. Any of you who are going to be in New York during the next few months can contact him directly.
最近，比尔成立了一家纽约股票交易所会员公司，公司名是 Ruane, Cunniff & Stires, Inc.，地址是纽约市百老街 85 号，电话是 (212) 344-6700。约翰•哈丁将在 1970 年 3 月 1 日为该公司在奥马哈设立办事处。比尔为付费私人客户管理资产，也经营券商业务，目前他的经营模式是客户的佣金可以抵免一部分管理费。他也像巴菲特合伙基金一样，允许每月按资金比例提现（与实现的收益或亏损无关）。他可能会把所有账户合并到一起管理，如果你打算把资金交给他管理，具体怎么做，要由你们商量。我完全不会参与他的管理工作。我会把我们的合伙人名单寄给他，他很快就会给各位写一封信。他打算年末之前到奥马哈、洛杉矶和芝加哥这几个地方，和你们见一下面。如果你这几个月打算去纽约，可以顺路直接拜访他。
Bill's overall record has been very good-averaging fairly close to BPL's, but with considerably greater variation. From 1956-1961 and from 1964-1968, a composite of his individual accounts averaged over 40% per annum. However, in 1962, undoubtedly somewhat as a product of the euphoric experience of the earlier years, he was down about 50%. As he re-oriented his thinking, 1963 was about breakeven.
比尔的整体业绩相当好，平均业绩和巴菲特合伙基金不相上下，但是波动幅度大得多。从 1956-1961 加上从 1964-1968，他管理的个人帐户平均整体收益率是每年 40% 以上。但是，1962 年，或许是前几年业绩太劲爆了，他下跌了 50% 左右。经过总结和反思，1963 年，他取得了持平的业绩。
While two years may sound like a short time when included in a table of performance, it may feel like a long time when your net worth is down 50%. I think you run this sort of short-term risk with virtually any money manager operating in stocks and it is a factor to consider in deciding the portion of your capital to commit to equities. To date in 1969, Bill is down about 15%, which I believe to be fairly typical of most money managers. Bill, of course, has not been in control situations or workouts, which have usually tended to moderate the swings in BPL year-to-year performance. Even excluding these factors, I believe his performance would have been somewhat more volatile (but not necessarily poorer by any means) than mine - his style is different, and while his typical portfolio (under most conditions) would tend to have a mild overlap with mine, there would always be very significant differences.
在一张业绩表里，两年时间看起来好像很短，但是自己的资产下跌 50%，这样的两年很难熬。在我看来，不管是选哪个资产管理人，只要是投资股票，都会遇到这样的短期风险。在决定自己将多少资金用于投资股票时，这个因素要考虑到。到目前为止，比尔 1969 年的收益率是下跌 15% 左右，大多数基金经理差不多都是这个业绩。比尔没做控制类和套利类投资，我们有控制类和套利类，它们有平滑合伙基金年度波动的作用。就算不考虑控制类和套利类，我也觉得比尔的业绩波动比我们更大（这当然不等于他的业绩不如我们），他的风格不一样。在大多数情况下，他的投资组合和我的只有一小部分重合，整体是非常不一样的。
Bill has achieved his results working with an average of $5 to $10 million. I consider the three most likely negative factors in his future to be: (1) the probability of managing significantly larger sums - this is a problem you are going to have rather quickly with any successful money manager, and it will tend to moderate performance; I believe Bill's firm is now managing $20 -$30 million and, of course, they will continue to add accounts; (2) the possibility of Bill's becoming too involved in the detail of his operation rather than spending all of his time simply thinking about money management. The problems of being the principal factor in a NYSE firm as well as handling many individual accounts can mean that he, like most investment advisors, will be subject to pressures to spend much of his time in activities that do nothing to lead to superior investment performance. In this connection, I have asked Bill to make his services available to all BPL partners - large or small and he will, but I have also told him he is completely a free agent if he finds particular clients diverting him from his main job; (3) the high probability that even excellent investment management during the next decade will only produce limited advantages over passive management. I will comment on this below.
在比尔实现上述业绩期间，他管理的资产规模平均下来在 500 万美元到 1000 万美元之间。我认为，在他将来的资产管理工作中，最大的不利因素有三点：(1) 他管理的资金可能比现在多得多。一个基金经理，只要做得好，很快就会面临这样的问题。管理资产规模增加容易拖累业绩。比尔的公司现在管理的资产在 2000 万美元到 3000 万美元之间，而且他管理的资产还会增加。(2) 比尔可能要拿出更多精力做公司的日常管理工作，这样就无法把所有时间都投入到思考资金管理中。他是一家纽交所会员公司的负责人，也管理着众多私人账户，他也可能像大多数投资顾问一样，身不由己，不得不做许多对提升投资业绩没用的事。我已经请比尔接受所有巴菲特合伙基金的合伙人了，无论他们资产规模是大是小，比尔也答应了。但是，我也和比尔说了，他要是觉得哪个客户影响了他的工作，他完全可以自己看着办；(3) 在今后十年，有很高的概率会出现这样一个情况：主动投资做得再出色，或许都不会比被动投资强多少。这一点，我要详细说一下。
The final point regarding the negatives listed above is that they are not the sort of drawbacks leading to horrible performance, but more likely the sort of things that lead to average performance. I think this is the main risk you run with Bill - and average performance is just not that terrible a risk.
我一共说了三个不利因素，这最后一个不利因素，不是说业绩会多糟糕，而是说业绩可能只有一般水平。这是把投资交给比尔打理的最大风险。不过，业绩一般这个风险算不上特别严重。
In recommending Bill, I am engaging in the sort of activity I have tried to avoid in BPL portfolio activities - a decision where there is nothing to gain (personally) and considerable to lose. Some of my friends who are not in the Partnership have suggested that I make no recommendation since, if results were excellent it would do me no good and, if something went wrong, I might well get a portion of the blame. If you and I had just had a normal commercial relationship, such reasoning might be sound. However, the degree of trust partners have extended to me and the cooperation manifested in various ways precludes such a "hands off" policy. Many of you are professional investors or close thereto and need no advice from me on managers - you may well do better yourself. For those partners who are financially inexperienced. I feel it would be totally unfair for me to assume a passive position and deliver you to the most persuasive salesman who happened to contact you early in 1970.
有的决策是这样的：做对了，得不到什么；做错了，会失去很多。在管理巴菲特合伙基金的投资组合时，我总是尽量避免做出这样的决策。但是我向各位推荐比尔，我做的这件事可能就是一个对我个人没什么好处的决策。我有一些朋友在我们的合伙基金里没有投资，他们劝我别推荐，将来业绩好，我得不到什么好处，将来业绩差，我倒会被牵连。如果你我之间只是简单的商业关系，这样的逻辑很合理。但是，想到合伙人这些年来对我的信任，从方方面面对我的支持，我不能撒手不管。你们里有许多人自己有相当高的投资水平，有的还是职业投资者，你们不需要我推荐资产管理人，你们自己可能会有更好的选择。但是，有些合伙人不懂投资，我要是什么都不做，眼看着你们在 1970 年被最能说会道的推销员拉走，我就太对不起你们了。
Finally, a word about expectations. A decade or so ago was quite willing to set a target of ten percentage points per annum better than the Dow, with the expectation that the Dow would average about 7%. This meant an expectancy for us of around 17%, with wide variations and no guarantees, of course - but, nevertheless, an expectancy. Tax-free bonds at the time yielded about 3%. While stocks had the disadvantage of irregular performance, overall they seemed much the more desirable option. I also stressed this preference for stocks in teaching classes, participating in panel discussions, etc...
最后，我再说说预期。十多年前，我预计道指平均每年的收益率是 7% 左右，我可以毫不犹豫地把目标设为每年领先道指 10 个百分点。也就是说，我们当时的预期收益率是 17% 左右，当然了每年可能有巨大的波动，而且不承诺一定能做到，但不管怎么说，我们还是有这么个预期。当时，免税债券的收益率是 3% 左右，股票虽然比债券波动更大，但整体来看，买股票还是比买债券合适得多。当时，我在学校里讲课以及和别人讨论的时候，都表示更看好股票。
For the first time in my investment lifetime. I now believe there is little choice for the average investor between professionally managed money in stocks and passive investment in bonds. If correct. this view has important implications. Let me briefly (and in somewhat oversimplified form) set out the situation as I see it:
现在，我认为，对于普通投资者来说，是把钱交给职业基金经理，还是被动买入债券，这两者之间没什么好选的。我投资这么多年了，还是第一次遇到这个情况。如果我判断对了，那么这个情况会产生深远的影响。下面，我特别简单地分析一下我看到的情况：
(1) I am talking about the situation for, say, a taxpayer in a 40% Federal Income Tax bracket who also has some State Income Tax to pay. Various changes are being proposed in the tax laws, which may adversely affect net results from presently tax-exempt income, capital gains, and perhaps other types of investment income. More proposals will probably come in the future. Overall, I feel such changes over the years will not negate my relative expectations about after-tax income from presently tax-free bonds versus common stocks, and may well even mildly reinforce them.
(1) 在我讲的情况中，我是以联邦所得税税档为 40% 并且需要缴纳所在州所得税的个人为例。税法改革正在进行，将来税法改革后，按照现在的税法计算的免税收入、资本利得以及其他投资收益可能会减少。税法改革会越来越深入。整体而言，将来税法改革后，也不会影响我对当前免税债券与股票税后收益的对比预期，甚至会对我的预期有微小的推动作用。
(2) I am talking about expectations over the next ten years - not the next weeks or months. I find it much easier to think about what should develop over a relatively long period of time than what is likely in any short period. As Ben Graham said: “In the long run, the market is a weighing machine - in the short run, a voting machine.” I have always found it easier to evaluate weights dictated by fundamentals than votes dictated by psychology.
(2) 我这里说的预期是今后十年，不是今后几个星期或几个月。在一个较长的时间里会发生什么，这个比较容易想明白。要知道短期内会发生什么，就比较难了。正如本•格雷厄姆所说：“长期看，股市是称重机。短期看，股市是投票器。”重量是基本面决定的，这个比较容易评估。投票是心理决定的，这个比较难以捉摸。
(3) Purely passive investment in tax-free bonds will now bring about 6-1/2%. This yield can be achieved with excellent quality and locked up for just about any period for which the investor wishes to contract. Such conditions may not exist in March when Bill and I will be available to assist you in bond purchases, but they exist today.
(3) 目前，被动投资免税债券可以获得 6.5% 的收益率。相应标的的质地特别好，而且想买多长时间的都可以。等到三月份，比尔和我帮大家挑选债券的时候不一定还存在这个情况，但现在是这样。
(4) The ten year expectation for corporate stocks as a group is probably not better than 9% overall. say 3% dividends and 6% gain in value. I would doubt that Gross National Product grows more than 6% per annum - I don't believe corporate profits are likely to grow significantly as a percentage of GNP - and if earnings multipliers don't change (and with these assumptions and present interest rates they shouldn't) the aggregate valuation of American corporate enterprise should not grow at a long-term compounded rate above 6% per annum. This typical experience in stocks might produce (for the taxpayer described earlier) 1-3/4% after tax from dividends and 4-3/4% after tax from capital gain, for a total after-tax return of about 6-1/2%. The pre-tax mix between dividends and capital gains might be more like 4% and 5%, giving a slightly lower aftertax result. This is not far from historical experience and overall, I believe future tax rules on capital gains are likely to be stiffer than in the past.
(4) 今后十年，股票投资的整体收益率可能不会超过 9%，其中包括 3% 的分红，以及 6% 的价值提升。国民生产总值每年的增长速度不会超过 6%，公司利润的增长速度不可能比国民生产总值增速高多少，在市盈率不变的情况下（按上述假设以及当前利率，市盈率应该不会变），美国公司的整体价值的长期复合增长率应该不会超过每年 6%。按照这个股市整体水平，对于上述纳税人而言，股息税后收益率是 1.75%，资本利得税后收益率是 4.75%，整体税后收益率是 6.5%。股息和资本利得的税前收益率也有可能分别是 4% 和 5%，这样的话，整体税后收益率就要更低一些。历史水平大致如此，而且我认为将来税法可能会规定征收更高的资本利得税。
(5) Finally, probably half the money invested in stocks over the next decade will be professionally managed. Thus, by definition virtually, the total investor experience with professionally managed money will be average results (or 6-1/2% after tax if my assumptions above are correct).
(5) 今后十年，在所有投资股票的资金中，或许有一半将由职业基金经理掌管。投资者把资产交给基金经理掌管，他们获得的整体业绩不可能和平均水平有多大差别（即税后 6.5%，如果我的假设正确的话）。
My judgment would be that less than 10% of professionally managed money (which might imply an average of $40 billion just for this superior segment) handled consistently for the decade would average 2 points per annum over group expectancy. So-called "aggressively run" money is unlikely to do significantly better than the general run of professionally managed money. There is probably $50 billion in various gradations of this "aggressive" category now - maybe 100 times that of a decade ago - and $50 billion just can't "perform".
我的判断是：在未来整个十年里，在职业基金经理掌管的资金中，不到 10%（领先的这部分资金规模约 400 亿美元）能超过整体预期水平，每年平均领先两个百分点。那些风格激进的基金的收益率不太可能比一般基金的收益率高多少。目前，各种风格基金的基金掌管着 500 亿美元，规模是十年前类似风格基金的 100 倍。500 亿的规模根本不可能取得超额收益。
If you are extremely fortunate and select advisors who achieve results in the top 1% to 2% of the country (but who will be working with material sums of money because they are that good), I think it is unlikely you will do much more than 4 points per annum better than the group expectancy. I think the odds are good that Bill Ruane is in this select category. My estimate . therefore, is that over the next decade the results of really excellent management for our "typical taxpayer" after tax might be 1-3/4% from dividends and 7-3/4% from capital gain. or 9 –1.2% overall.
如果你运气特别好，选到的基金经理能把业绩做到全国最高的 1% 到 2%（因为他们业绩太优秀了，必然会管理大量资金），我觉得你每年的收益率最多也就比整体预期水平高 4 个点。比尔•鲁安有很大的概率，能成为这些最优秀基金经理中的一员。按我的估算，在今后十年中，真正特别优秀的基金经理能为“一般纳税人”带来 1.75% 的股息税后收益率和 7.75% 的资本利得税后收益率，即整体收益率为 9.5%。
(6) The rather startling conclusion is that under today's historically unusual conditions, passive investment in tax-free bonds is likely to be fully the equivalent of expectations from professionally managed money in stocks, and only modestly inferior to extremely well-managed equity money.
(6) 于是，我们可以得出这样一个令人吃惊的结论：与历史相比，当今的情况不同寻常，被动投资于免税债券取得的收益率，与职业基金经理投资股票的预期收益率完全不相上下，只比最优秀的股票投资收益率略为逊色。
(7) A word about inflation - it has very little to do with the above calculation except that it enters into the 6% assumed growth rate in GNP and contributes to the causes producing 6-1/2% on tax-free bonds. If stocks should produce 8% after tax and bonds 4%, stocks are better to own than bonds, regardless of whether prices go up, down or sidewise. The converse is true if bonds produce 6-1/2% after tax. and stocks 6%. The simple truth, of course, is that the best expectable after-tax rate of return makes the most sense - given a rising, declining or stable dollar.
(7) 关于通货膨胀：通货膨胀与上述计算无关，但是与上面假设的国民生产总值 6% 的增长率有关，而且也是当前免税债券收益率达到 6.5% 的原因之一。如果股票的税后收益率是 8%，而债券的收益率是 4%，无论股价上涨下跌，还是横盘不动，持有股票都比持有债券好。但是，当债券的税后收益率是 6.5%，而股票的收益率是 6% 时，那就反过来了。有一个最简单、最实际的道理：无论美元上涨下跌，还是横盘不动，我们最应当关注的都是哪个投资的预期税后收益率最高。
All of the above should be viewed with all the suspicion properly accorded to assessments of the future. It does seem to me to be the most realistic evaluation of what is always an uncertain future - I present it with no great feeling regarding its approximate accuracy, but only so you will know what I think at this time.
对待关于未来的评估，一定要持有合理的怀疑态度。对于我的上述预测，也不例外。未来总是不确定的，我上面所说的，是我认为对未来最贴切的评估。我把这些写下来了，但是并不以为我的预测有多准确，只是要把我当前的想法如实告诉各位。
You will have to make your own decision as between bonds and stocks and, if the latter, who advises you on such stocks. In many cases, I think the decision should largely reflect your tangible and intangible (temperamental) needs for regularity of income and absence of large principal fluctuation, perhaps balanced against psychic needs for some excitement and the fun associated with contemplating and perhaps enjoying really juicy results. If you would like to talk over the problem with me, I will be very happy to help.
如何在债券和股票中分配，投资股票的话，要交给谁打理，这些问题，必须由各位自己决定。我觉得，在很多情况下，做决定的时候，你首先要考虑自己有形和无形（性情方面的）的需求，是否需要定期获得收入，是否不想本金出现大幅度波动，然后还要考虑自己的心理需求，是否想享受可能获得超高收益率的兴奋和乐趣。如果你想和我谈谈这个问题，我非常乐意帮忙。
Sincerely,
Warren E. Buffett
此致， 沃伦 E. 巴菲特
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