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lindy-effect

Statistical testing of the Lindy effect with real world data

About the experiment

We test the accuracy of the Lindy Effect on the history of GNU/Linux distributions.

The source code of the experiment is here: process.R

Table of contents

Steps to reproduce

Prerequisites

  1. Install R 3.6.1

Input data

We're using the 2019 May 4 version of FabioLolix/LinuxTimeline data

No need to pre-download, the R script will download this file for you.

Download and run the experiment

Download script:

mkdir ~/lindy-effect
cd ~/lindy-effect
curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/alevchuk/lindy-effect/master/process.R > process.R
chmod +x process.R

Run experiment:

./process.R

Results

Using lindy effect to predict which Linux distro will live 2x of its current age. At each time point, we take the oldest repo among survivors and bet that it will live 2x of its current age then we count the time points when we were correct and calculate what percentage of time we were correct.

Description Value
Time points when correct: 98
Time points total: 164
Ratio: 0.597560975609756

Lindy effect is correct 59.8% of the time

Input Data Visualization

Our input data has a beautiful visualization in the Linux_distribution wikipedia article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux_distribution#History Linux_Distribution_Timeline

Results Visualization

lindy-age-life-scatter-plot

lindy-age-life-scatter-plot-oy

Results Raw Data

Oldest survivors

Name Start Stop totalAgeInDays
MCC Interim 1992-02-01 1996-04-23 1543 days
DLD 1993-01-01 1999-12-01 2525 days
Slackware 1993-07-16 2019-04-30 9419 days

Time points when prediction was correct

currentTime Name ageInDays futureLifeInDays willLive2x
1992-02-01 MCC Interim 0 days 1543 days TRUE
1992-03-01 MCC Interim 29 days 1514 days TRUE
1992-04-01 MCC Interim 60 days 1483 days TRUE
1992-05-01 MCC Interim 90 days 1453 days TRUE
1992-06-01 MCC Interim 121 days 1422 days TRUE
1992-07-01 MCC Interim 151 days 1392 days TRUE
1992-08-01 MCC Interim 182 days 1361 days TRUE
1992-09-01 MCC Interim 213 days 1330 days TRUE
1992-10-01 MCC Interim 243 days 1300 days TRUE
1992-11-01 MCC Interim 274 days 1269 days TRUE
1992-12-01 MCC Interim 304 days 1239 days TRUE
1993-01-01 MCC Interim 335 days 1208 days TRUE
1993-02-01 MCC Interim 366 days 1177 days TRUE
1993-03-01 MCC Interim 394 days 1149 days TRUE
1993-04-01 MCC Interim 425 days 1118 days TRUE
1993-05-01 MCC Interim 455 days 1088 days TRUE
1993-06-01 MCC Interim 486 days 1057 days TRUE
1993-07-01 MCC Interim 516 days 1027 days TRUE
1993-08-01 MCC Interim 547 days 996 days TRUE
1993-09-01 MCC Interim 578 days 965 days TRUE
1993-10-01 MCC Interim 608 days 935 days TRUE
1993-11-01 MCC Interim 639 days 904 days TRUE
1993-12-01 MCC Interim 669 days 874 days TRUE
1994-01-01 MCC Interim 700 days 843 days TRUE
1994-02-01 MCC Interim 731 days 812 days TRUE
1994-03-01 MCC Interim 759 days 784 days TRUE
1994-04-01 MCC Interim 790 days 753 days FALSE
1994-05-01 MCC Interim 820 days 723 days FALSE
1994-06-01 MCC Interim 851 days 692 days FALSE
1994-07-01 MCC Interim 881 days 662 days FALSE
1994-08-01 MCC Interim 912 days 631 days FALSE
1994-09-01 MCC Interim 943 days 600 days FALSE
1994-10-01 MCC Interim 973 days 570 days FALSE
1994-11-01 MCC Interim 1004 days 539 days FALSE
1994-12-01 MCC Interim 1034 days 509 days FALSE
1995-01-01 MCC Interim 1065 days 478 days FALSE
1995-02-01 MCC Interim 1096 days 447 days FALSE
1995-03-01 MCC Interim 1124 days 419 days FALSE
1995-04-01 MCC Interim 1155 days 388 days FALSE
1995-05-01 MCC Interim 1185 days 358 days FALSE
1995-06-01 MCC Interim 1216 days 327 days FALSE
1995-07-01 MCC Interim 1246 days 297 days FALSE
1995-08-01 MCC Interim 1277 days 266 days FALSE
1995-09-01 MCC Interim 1308 days 235 days FALSE
1995-10-01 MCC Interim 1338 days 205 days FALSE
1995-11-01 MCC Interim 1369 days 174 days FALSE
1995-12-01 MCC Interim 1399 days 144 days FALSE
1996-01-01 MCC Interim 1430 days 113 days FALSE
1996-02-01 MCC Interim 1461 days 82 days FALSE
1996-03-01 MCC Interim 1490 days 53 days FALSE
1996-04-01 MCC Interim 1521 days 22 days FALSE
1996-05-01 DLD 1216 days 1309 days TRUE
1996-06-01 DLD 1247 days 1278 days TRUE
1996-07-01 DLD 1277 days 1248 days FALSE
1996-08-01 DLD 1308 days 1217 days FALSE
1996-09-01 DLD 1339 days 1186 days FALSE
1996-10-01 DLD 1369 days 1156 days FALSE
1996-11-01 DLD 1400 days 1125 days FALSE
1996-12-01 DLD 1430 days 1095 days FALSE
1997-01-01 DLD 1461 days 1064 days FALSE
1997-02-01 DLD 1492 days 1033 days FALSE
1997-03-01 DLD 1520 days 1005 days FALSE
1997-04-01 DLD 1551 days 974 days FALSE
1997-05-01 DLD 1581 days 944 days FALSE
1997-06-01 DLD 1612 days 913 days FALSE
1997-07-01 DLD 1642 days 883 days FALSE
1997-08-01 DLD 1673 days 852 days FALSE
1997-09-01 DLD 1704 days 821 days FALSE
1997-10-01 DLD 1734 days 791 days FALSE
1997-11-01 DLD 1765 days 760 days FALSE
1997-12-01 DLD 1795 days 730 days FALSE
1998-01-01 DLD 1826 days 699 days FALSE
1998-02-01 DLD 1857 days 668 days FALSE
1998-03-01 DLD 1885 days 640 days FALSE
1998-04-01 DLD 1916 days 609 days FALSE
1998-05-01 DLD 1946 days 579 days FALSE
1998-06-01 DLD 1977 days 548 days FALSE
1998-07-01 DLD 2007 days 518 days FALSE
1998-08-01 DLD 2038 days 487 days FALSE
1998-09-01 DLD 2069 days 456 days FALSE
1998-10-01 DLD 2099 days 426 days FALSE
1998-11-01 DLD 2130 days 395 days FALSE
1998-12-01 DLD 2160 days 365 days FALSE
1999-01-01 DLD 2191 days 334 days FALSE
1999-02-01 DLD 2222 days 303 days FALSE
1999-03-01 DLD 2250 days 275 days FALSE
1999-04-01 DLD 2281 days 244 days FALSE
1999-05-01 DLD 2311 days 214 days FALSE
1999-06-01 DLD 2342 days 183 days FALSE
1999-07-01 DLD 2372 days 153 days FALSE
1999-08-01 DLD 2403 days 122 days FALSE
1999-09-01 DLD 2434 days 91 days FALSE
1999-10-01 DLD 2464 days 61 days FALSE
1999-11-01 DLD 2495 days 30 days FALSE
1999-12-01 Slackware 2329 days 7090 days TRUE
2000-01-01 Slackware 2360 days 7059 days TRUE
2000-02-01 Slackware 2391 days 7028 days TRUE
2000-03-01 Slackware 2420 days 6999 days TRUE
2000-04-01 Slackware 2451 days 6968 days TRUE
2000-05-01 Slackware 2481 days 6938 days TRUE
2000-06-01 Slackware 2512 days 6907 days TRUE
2000-07-01 Slackware 2542 days 6877 days TRUE
2000-08-01 Slackware 2573 days 6846 days TRUE
2000-09-01 Slackware 2604 days 6815 days TRUE
2000-10-01 Slackware 2634 days 6785 days TRUE
2000-11-01 Slackware 2665 days 6754 days TRUE
2000-12-01 Slackware 2695 days 6724 days TRUE
2001-01-01 Slackware 2726 days 6693 days TRUE
2001-02-01 Slackware 2757 days 6662 days TRUE
2001-03-01 Slackware 2785 days 6634 days TRUE
2001-04-01 Slackware 2816 days 6603 days TRUE
2001-05-01 Slackware 2846 days 6573 days TRUE
2001-06-01 Slackware 2877 days 6542 days TRUE
2001-07-01 Slackware 2907 days 6512 days TRUE
2001-08-01 Slackware 2938 days 6481 days TRUE
2001-09-01 Slackware 2969 days 6450 days TRUE
2001-10-01 Slackware 2999 days 6420 days TRUE
2001-11-01 Slackware 3030 days 6389 days TRUE
2001-12-01 Slackware 3060 days 6359 days TRUE
2002-01-01 Slackware 3091 days 6328 days TRUE
2002-02-01 Slackware 3122 days 6297 days TRUE
2002-03-01 Slackware 3150 days 6269 days TRUE
2002-04-01 Slackware 3181 days 6238 days TRUE
2002-05-01 Slackware 3211 days 6208 days TRUE
2002-06-01 Slackware 3242 days 6177 days TRUE
2002-07-01 Slackware 3272 days 6147 days TRUE
2002-08-01 Slackware 3303 days 6116 days TRUE
2002-09-01 Slackware 3334 days 6085 days TRUE
2002-10-01 Slackware 3364 days 6055 days TRUE
2002-11-01 Slackware 3395 days 6024 days TRUE
2002-12-01 Slackware 3425 days 5994 days TRUE
2003-01-01 Slackware 3456 days 5963 days TRUE
2003-02-01 Slackware 3487 days 5932 days TRUE
2003-03-01 Slackware 3515 days 5904 days TRUE
2003-04-01 Slackware 3546 days 5873 days TRUE
2003-05-01 Slackware 3576 days 5843 days TRUE
2003-06-01 Slackware 3607 days 5812 days TRUE
2003-07-01 Slackware 3637 days 5782 days TRUE
2003-08-01 Slackware 3668 days 5751 days TRUE
2003-09-01 Slackware 3699 days 5720 days TRUE
2003-10-01 Slackware 3729 days 5690 days TRUE
2003-11-01 Slackware 3760 days 5659 days TRUE
2003-12-01 Slackware 3790 days 5629 days TRUE
2004-01-01 Slackware 3821 days 5598 days TRUE
2004-02-01 Slackware 3852 days 5567 days TRUE
2004-03-01 Slackware 3881 days 5538 days TRUE
2004-04-01 Slackware 3912 days 5507 days TRUE
2004-05-01 Slackware 3942 days 5477 days TRUE
2004-06-01 Slackware 3973 days 5446 days TRUE
2004-07-01 Slackware 4003 days 5416 days TRUE
2004-08-01 Slackware 4034 days 5385 days TRUE
2004-09-01 Slackware 4065 days 5354 days TRUE
2004-10-01 Slackware 4095 days 5324 days TRUE
2004-11-01 Slackware 4126 days 5293 days TRUE
2004-12-01 Slackware 4156 days 5263 days TRUE
2005-01-01 Slackware 4187 days 5232 days TRUE
2005-02-01 Slackware 4218 days 5201 days TRUE
2005-03-01 Slackware 4246 days 5173 days TRUE
2005-04-01 Slackware 4277 days 5142 days TRUE
2005-05-01 Slackware 4307 days 5112 days TRUE
2005-06-01 Slackware 4338 days 5081 days TRUE
2005-07-01 Slackware 4368 days 5051 days TRUE
2005-08-01 Slackware 4399 days 5020 days TRUE
2005-09-01 Slackware 4430 days 4989 days TRUE

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Statistical testing of the Lindy effect

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