Northeast Corridor delay methodology

Presentation

https://youtu.be/FoiRxNST2fg

Data collection

• Kaggle
• GTFS
• riem weather
• NJT train cancellations by month

Data processing

• Give each station a defined sequence ID number
• Filter for non-NA, for complete trips, year 2019
• Categorize trains by period of day
• Categorize into small delay and big delay

Feature engineering

• Create feature for known bottleneck (interlocking, speed limit)
• Time lag
• Period of day
• Weather

Modeling

• Model delay by station
• Model delay by train

User Interface

This is the user interface we recommend: the left is for normal commuters, we just add a delay prediction based on our model posted 2 hours before departure on the existing NJT APP. But for interest group, we are going to have a PC-based dashboard that include a interactive stringline, train’s current and historical operation status. The Service Recommendation section below includes our model results.