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Create README.md
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jxin2618 authored Nov 17, 2021
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Expand Up @@ -76,8 +76,10 @@ $$ DP_t = b_0 + b_1 (F_{t|t-1} - P_{t-1}) + e_t \tag{2} $$
- Brenner and Kroner Model(1995):
$$ DP_t = g_0 + g_1 DF_{t|t-1} + g_2 Dr_{t|t-1} + g_3 DI_{t-1} + g_4 D\sigma_{t-1} $$
$$ + g_5 D\rho(1)_{t-1} + g_6ECT_{t-2} + e_t \tag{3} $$
- The error correction term, $ECT_{t-2}$ is the residual, $e_{t-1}$ from the regression:
$$ P_{t-1} = h_0 + h_1 F_{t-1|t-2} + h_2 r_{t-1|t-2} + h_3I_{t-2} + h_4 \sigma_{t-2} + h_5\rho(1)_{t-2} + e_{t-1} $$

The error correction term, $ECT_{t-2}$ is the residual, $e_{t-1}$ from the regression:
$$ P_{t-1} = h_0 + h_1 F_{t-1|t-2} + h_2 r_{t-1|t-2} + h_3I_{t-2} + $$
$$ h_4 \sigma_{t-2} + h_5\rho(1)_{t-2} + e_{t-1} $$

- Vector Error Correction Model:
$$ DX_t = M_1 DX_{t-1} + S^{'}ECT_{t-2}^{*} + L + E_t\tag{4} $$
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