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Simplified pandemic simulator based on properties of COVID-19.
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llinsky/pandemic
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This is a simplified Python pandemic simulator based on infection properties of COVID-19. The inspiration was to test different quarantine models on the total number of infected (for example, only quarantining the elderly and at-risk to achieve faster herd immunity and reduce total deaths). However, this simulator is still far too simple to draw meaningful conclusions. Contributions are welcome, especially ones that make the model more realistic without being too computationally expensive, or which provide a means to create a digital graphic of the spread of the disease over time. Requirements: pandas Recommended: pypy (for speed) Example: %run "virus_sim.py" w = World(20000, 10, 1) # 20,000 people in the "World", randomly distributed on the default 200x200 world-grid, with 10 initially infected who are able to expose people up to 1 tile away in each direction. People move around daily according to their age. df = w.run_simulation(100) # Run simulation for 100 days. df Out[005]: Population Infected Recovered Dead 0 20000 13 0 0 1 20000 18 0 0 2 20000 23 0 0 3 20000 28 0 0 4 20000 32 0 0 5 20000 42 0 0 6 20000 46 0 0 7 20000 55 0 0 8 20000 63 0 0 9 20000 73 7 0 10 20000 87 10 0 11 20000 95 15 0 12 20000 108 17 0 13 20000 113 24 0 14 20000 135 28 0 15 20000 152 39 0 16 20000 176 43 0 17 20000 197 49 0 18 20000 216 58 0 19 20000 239 73 0 20 20000 278 86 0 21 20000 302 100 0 22 20000 342 117 0 23 20000 379 129 0 24 19999 426 145 1 25 19999 481 172 1 26 19998 549 196 2 27 19997 619 220 3 28 19996 680 252 4 29 19995 765 286 5 30 19995 852 330 5 31 19995 957 382 5 32 19995 1083 422 5 33 19995 1220 470 5 34 19993 1350 528 7 35 19993 1471 607 7 36 19993 1597 683 7 37 19992 1745 771 8 38 19988 1873 864 12 39 19986 2028 968 14 40 19985 2145 1092 15 41 19980 2265 1222 20 42 19977 2367 1381 23 43 19973 2512 1534 27 44 19971 2654 1704 29 45 19966 2733 1910 34 46 19961 2828 2114 39 47 19959 2938 2308 41 48 19955 3040 2517 45 49 19947 3083 2763 53 50 19941 3174 3001 59 51 19935 3223 3268 65 52 19928 3298 3528 72 53 19919 3330 3787 81 54 19911 3368 4064 89 55 19910 3410 4347 90 56 19900 3422 4616 100 57 19896 3399 4927 104 58 19888 3385 5234 112 59 19880 3369 5529 120 60 19874 3341 5834 126 61 19868 3292 6134 132 62 19861 3253 6433 139 63 19857 3140 6769 143 64 19848 3027 7091 152 65 19845 2942 7386 155 66 19842 2849 7696 158 67 19838 2768 7975 162 68 19833 2629 8299 167 69 19826 2558 8556 174 70 19823 2404 8850 177 71 19814 2271 9121 186 72 19809 2159 9382 191 73 19806 2059 9622 194 74 19802 1955 9846 198 75 19797 1849 10064 203 76 19794 1763 10267 206 77 19790 1653 10485 210 78 19787 1562 10675 213 79 19784 1465 10867 216 80 19781 1382 11023 219 81 19779 1278 11204 221 82 19772 1183 11362 228 83 19767 1118 11492 233 84 19765 1044 11617 235 85 19760 972 11731 240 86 19758 892 11873 242 87 19756 803 11994 244 88 19756 730 12106 244 89 19756 687 12191 244 90 19753 602 12299 247 91 19748 557 12367 252 92 19747 493 12451 253 93 19746 457 12509 254 94 19746 405 12580 254 95 19743 368 12633 257 96 19743 333 12690 257 97 19741 308 12728 259 98 19738 280 12765 262 99 19738 257 12797 262
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Simplified pandemic simulator based on properties of COVID-19.
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